By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Environment and Resources Commission on Geosciences, Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
Panel on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and weather switch, surroundings and assets fee on Geosciences, department on the earth and existence reviews, nationwide study Council
This booklet recommends the initiation of an "integrated" study application to check the position of aerosols within the envisioned worldwide weather switch. present figuring out recommend that, even now, aerosols, basically from anthropogenic resources, can be decreasing the speed of warming because of greenhouse fuel emissions. as well as particular examine thoughts, this booklet forcefully argues for 2 sorts of examine application integration: integration of the person laboratory, box, and theoretical examine actions and an built-in administration constitution that contains the entire involved federal organisations.
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Extra info for A Plan for a Research Program on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
Although they are consistent with a sulfate effect on climate, it is not possible to unambiguously attribute the proposed trends to the specific mechanisms and forcings included in the models at this time. These lines of evidence taken together, along with the relative weakness of evidence to the contrary, are convincing to us that climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosol is sufficiently significant to be considered as roughly equivalent (but of opposite sign) to that of GHG forcing in many parts of the world, although the uncertainty is large.
Please use the print version of this publication as the authoritative version for attribution. CLIMATE FORCING BY AEROSOLS 27 cycles to consider for this type of aerosol (photochemical oxidation products of natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons; smoke from biomass combustion; and soot, particularly from fossil fuel combustion). 2 provides estimates of global source strengths and resultant optical depths for natural and anthropogenic aerosol types (Andreae, 1995). Whereas the anthropogenic aerosol mass flux is estimated to be only about 10 percent of the total, perhaps as much as about 50 percent of the global mean aerosol optical depth is anthropogenic; the reason follows from both shorter lifetimes and lower optical extinction efficiencies for soil dust and sea salt aerosols than for the major anthropogenic types (sulfates and smoke from biomass combustion).
ELEMENTS OF A RESEARCH PROGRAM FOR AEROSOL FORCING OF CLIMATE 35 2 Elements of a Research Program for Aerosol Forcing of Climate The scientific problems that need to be addressed to narrow uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing of climate require a highly coordinated observational, laboratory, and modeling program. 1 shows a heuristic diagram of the general components of an integrated aerosol-climate research program. The required research is composed of (1) observations, both shortterm intensive observational campaigns and long-term systematic monitoring (both satellite and in situ); (2) process studies, both theoretical and laboratorybased; and (3) model development and evaluation, ranging from process models directed at a single phenomenon to global climate models.